Growth is a given in the global mobile industry, and it’s impossible to distil it down to a single driver, but if you had to select just one, smartphone ownership would be a good place to start.
Smartphones are certainly driving rapid 5G uptake. Ericsson, which published the latest iteration of its Mobility Report this week, has upped its forecast on 5G adoption for the full year on the back of device availability: The Swedish vendor now predicts there will be 660 million 5G subscriptions globally by the end of this year. “This is an increase from our previous estimate and is mainly due to stronger than expected demand in China and North America, impacted partly by decreasing prices of 5G devices,” the firm’s report reads.
As recently as this summer Ericsson reported that 5G subscriptions growth was coming in at around 1 million per day and forecast there would be 580 million 5G subs by the end of 2021. However, the third quarter alone brought in 98 million 5G net adds, taking the global total to 570 million at the end of September. (See Telcos adding 1 million 5G subs per day globally: Ericsson report.)
Its figures perhaps still look a little conservative. To hit that 660 million target, the world needs to add 90 million 5G subs this quarter – that’s fewer than in Q3, despite this being a historically strong period for device sales, in no small part thanks to the bearded figure in a red suit.
There is the well-documented component shortage to take into account, of course. That could have an impact in the near term. However, it’s worth pointing out that alongside its latest smartphone figures, which showed a decline in sales to end users in Q3, Gartner noted that while the lack of components is hitting the market as a whole, its impact has been less pronounced at the premium end. While 5G devices are no longer solely high-priced models, the balance is still skewed in that direction.
The power of the device in driving mobile take-up and usage is nothing new. Ericsson has been doing some navel-gazing to mark this, the 10th anniversary, of its Mobility Report. Its forecasts have not all been correct over the years; that famous 50 billion connections by 2020 comment, which over a decade ago the wider industry ran with as a prediction, but Ericsson insists was ‘a vision, not a forecast,’ springs to mind. But it nailed it on smartphones.
“Comparing our November 2015 forecast to the up-to-date estimated figures for 2021, it is clear we correctly predicted the single most important parameter for this industry’s growth – smartphone subscription outlook,” the Mobility Report reads. …….
Source: https://www.telecomtv.com/content/5g/smartphones-rule-as-ericsson-ups-5g-forecast-43065/